This is it

I have not run one single step since Sunday. The sharp pain in my left calf was less sharp by Monday and gone by Thursday, but I did not want to risk bringing it back with an innocent training run.

What must have caused it is the increased mobility in my ankle. My osteopath had been manipulating it with great success. But this meant that during my very hilly run the calf muscle got stretched significantly further than it had been in years. Not surprisingly, the pain hit when I started the steepest descent of my training course.

So we'll have to see what tomorrow brings.

My body already felt completely charged this morning when I woke up, ready to go for it. But it needs carbs; tonight I'll find myself a good Italian place in Paris and stock up.

For the race itself, assuming my calfs holds, I expect to be cruising for the first 11 kilometers (up to the first passage of the Bastille) at a speed of 5:40 to 6:00 per minute. After that, along the Seine, I'll hit the first wall but the carb intake should get me through that. Then, at 16 kilometers it will get hard, as I have not been training any further. Also, the last bit has the steepest climbs. By then, my kilometer times will have gone up to 6:30 or 6:40. But back in the Bois de Vincennes, at around k19, I'll know I'm almost there.

Predicted finish time: 2:05 - 2:15.
My target: 2:08.

There's time measurement at different points, so here's what I aim for:
05k: 29:00
10k: 58:00
15k: 1:28:00
21k: 2:08:00

I'd be very happy with that, for my first race after recovering from injury. It'll give me something to build on in months ahead.